Iran War Escalates, Oil Prices To Explode

The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide at its narrowest point. Twenty-one miles. That’s roughly the distance between a bad idea and a full-blown international crisis — and right now, Iran is standing in the middle of it with a match.
Three ships got hit Wednesday. Three. In the same day. In the same choke point that handles about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. The Japanese-flagged ONE Majesty took a projectile hit while anchored near the UAE — above the waterline, minor damage, nobody hurt. Lucky. The Marshall Islands-flagged Star Gwyneth got smacked about 50 miles north of Dubai. Also manageable.
Then there’s the Mayuree Naree.
The Thai-flagged dry bulk carrier caught two projectiles — engine room on fire, twenty crew members evacuated to Oman, and three crew members still missing. Still trapped. Still unaccounted for while the world debates strategy and Iran posts victory footage on state media.
The IRGC didn’t exactly hide behind “unknown projectiles.” They strutted out a statement taking credit and explained, with the calm confidence of a mob boss collecting protection money, that the ships made the mistake of “trusting in empty promises, ignored the warnings and intended to cross the strait but got caught.”
“Every vessel intending to pass must obtain permission from Iran.”
Permission from Iran. Let that marinate. The mullahs — the same regime that funds Hamas, arms Hezbollah, and launches drones at our allies — now want a toll booth over one of the most critical maritime passages on the planet. This isn’t geopolitics anymore. This is a highway robbery with ballistic missiles.
And here’s where it gets stupid.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X Tuesday that the U.S. Navy had “successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.” Oil prices dropped almost immediately. Victory, right? Nope. The post got deleted faster than a CNN chyron during a ratings collapse. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt had to clean it up in front of cameras.
“I was made aware of this post. I haven’t had a chance to talk to the Energy secretary about it directly, however, I know the post was taken down pretty quickly and I can confirm that the U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,” Leavitt said.
The Energy Department blamed “staffers for incorrectly captioning a video.” Classic Washington — somebody always left the oven on when the kitchen catches fire. But the Energy Department did make clear that options are on the table, including Navy escorts, and that Trump’s team is “having the U.S. military draw up additional options to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.”
Trump didn’t tiptoe in here — but he hasn’t dropped the hammer yet either. The machinery is warming up. And if I had to predict where this goes, the Navy doesn’t stay docked much longer while Iranian drones are turning cargo ships into campfires.
The International Energy Agency threw a pressure valve Wednesday — unanimously authorizing its largest emergency oil reserve release in history. Roughly 400 million barrels. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called it a smart move for “a temporary transit problem that we’re resolving militarily and diplomatically.”
“The emergency stocks will be made available to the market over a timeframe that is appropriate to the national circumstances of each member country,” the IEA said.
Meanwhile, those ships sailing “dark” through the strait — transponders off, flying ghost — turned out to mostly be Iranian tankers sneaking 11.7 million barrels of crude to China. TankerTrackers.com cofounder Samir Madani told CNBC that Iran has quietly reactivated its Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman coast to funnel oil out while simultaneously slamming the door on everyone else’s ships.
So Iran’s blockading your tanker, burning the competition, and running its own oil exports to Beijing at full throttle. That’s not a rogue regime throwing a tantrum. That’s a calculated economic siege — and somebody’s going to have to decide how long the world’s most vital oil lane stays a shooting gallery.
Three crew members are still missing in that engine room. The meter is running. And the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t care how many press releases get deleted.